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NY Fed: Tariffs on CN risk hurting US economy more than data suggest

A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raises critical concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on Chinese imports on the US economy. The study suggests that the actual effect may be more significant than current trade data indicates due to discrepancies in import statistics between the US and China.

According to the research, the US reports significantly lower import volumes from China compared to what China reports as exports to the US. This statistical gap implies that the US economy is potentially more exposed to the effects of tariffs on Chinese goods than previously understood. This is a crucial point for businesses involved in international trade.

The New York Fed economists warn that these tariffs could lead to "larger consequences" for American consumers, particularly if the favorable "de minimis" treatment for low-value imports from China is discontinued and Chinese sellers do not absorb the tariff costs by lowering prices. This situation would inevitably result in higher prices for consumers and potentially disrupt supply chains for businesses reliant on these imports.

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As import/export professionals, we need to be keenly aware of these potential shifts. This research underscores the importance of diversifying supply chains, exploring alternative sourcing options, and closely monitoring policy changes that could impact trade flows. Furthermore, businesses should consider engaging in proactive risk management strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of these tariffs. Understanding these economic undercurrents is vital for making informed decisions and ensuring the resilience of our international trade operations. Let's discuss how these findings might affect your business and strategies for navigating these challenges.

#InternationalTrade #Tariffs #SupplyChain #USEconomy #China #ImportExport #RiskManagement #GlobalEconomy

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